Is COVID-19 Here to Stay? This Is What We Know Now

After nearly six months the public is still dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, now in even greater numbers than ever before. Not only back, it shows no signs of slowing down. People all over the world are asking the question, when will this virus end?

Though some public officials early on claimed the virus would simply ‘disappear’ on its own during the summer, that clearly has not been the case. White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has now publicly stated he finds it unlikely that COVID-19 will ever be fully eradicated.

This disease is different from SARS, which was quickly contained. COVID-19 is extremely efficient in its spread. Though it is possible we could eventually bring the virus down to manageable levels with proper safety precautions like masks and social distancing, the truth is COVID-19 may be here to stay.

Endemic vs. Pandemic

The study of epidemiology has four main levels for disease outbreaks, measuring the distance it has spread and the number of people infected. These levels include sporadic, with infrequent and irregular occurrence; endemic, with a fairly constant but generally low-level prevalence within a specific geographical area; epidemic, with a sudden increase in number of cases in a particular area; and pandemic, which is an epidemic that has spread over a vast geographical area and to a large number of people.

After the initial epidemic, the coronavirus was quickly upgraded to a pandemic as it began to spread across the globe. Now, experts are cautioning that this might not be the end. It’s possible that COVID-19 is here to stay as an endemic disease. Endemic diseases occur regularly and with consistency throughout a population. There are a number of diseases that we know well that can be classified as endemic. These include malaria, chickenpox, and African sleeping sickness in particular areas.

Seasonal Disease?

Many have suggested that this coronavirus could take the path of many other similar coronaviruses we already know of that cause the common cold. Like the seasonal flu and the common cold, these respiratory diseases typically fluctuate with the seasons, becoming more prevalent during the colder months of the year and showing up much less during the summer. Although the flu is not technically classified as endemic, it is predictable, occurring with seasonal regularity and with preventative measures in place (vaccines and antivirals).

It’s too soon to call COVID-19 an endemic disease, but it is a real possibility. With a vaccine in place, new treatments, and preventative measures taken, it might still be possible to eliminate it entirely.

Larry Muller
The Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine: What You Need to Know

The race to slow the coronavirus pandemic is in full swing, with researchers all over the world looking for treatments and methods to prevent the continued spread. Social distancing measures and masks can help to slow the transmission, but the truth is that our best hope is to create a vaccine. Vaccines work by introducing your body to a safe version of a virus and letting your system learn how to fight it off without any risk to your health. For COVID-19, there is much we don’t yet know about how long immunity might last, but a vaccine could offer at least some protection, particularly if herd immunity exists.

The truth is that the development of a new vaccine can take years, but in this crisis, researchers have expedited the process in the hopes of creating a vaccine in a year at most. Will such a vaccine be safe? How can researchers make it happen so quickly?

Developing a COVID-19 Vaccine

Luckily for researchers, creating a vaccine for this particular virus will not require them to start from scratch. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause a variety of respiratory diseases, including the simple common cold and other more dangerous diseases, such as MERS and SARS. The virus that causes COVID-19 is closely related to the one that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), so the previous research undertaken on this disease (and MERS) gives researchers a head start in developing a vaccine.

Emerging Challenges

For this vaccine, there are some challenges that researchers must overcome. The first one relates to safety. Even with the fast-tracked timeline, it is crucial that the resulting vaccine be safe for use on humans. While there are a few SARS vaccines that have been tested on animals, many of those have shown some problems. Extensive testing will be necessary to ensure safety. Another concern is long-term protection. Reinfection is a possibility, so any vaccine developed would need to offer at least some long-term protection. It’s possible that we may end up with a COVID-19 vaccine, much like the flu vaccine, if this virus mutates as other ones often do.

Manufacturing a Vaccine

Another challenge will come in producing enough of the vaccine quickly so that it can be distributed across the world. The last thing anyone wants is for only those countries producing the vaccine to have access to it, so decisions will need to be made. Manufacturing will depend in large part on the type of vaccine created. With so many researchers working on the problem, we can only hope to see a working vaccine soon.

Larry Muller
What You Need to Know about Lower COVID-19 Death Rates

Since it was first reported by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission on December 31, 2019, the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 has spread worldwide to reach pandemic level. It has killed more than 575,000 people and there have been more than 13 million confirmed cases as of July 14. The United States accounted for around one-quarter of all confirmed cases and deaths worldwide as of this point, with weekly cases rising throughout June and July as states continued to reopen. On July 12 the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a daily record of 66,281 new cases in the US.

Despite the rising number of confirmed cases, total deaths per day in the US was down substantially in July from peak levels in April. There are several metrics and potential explanations to explore to better understand the COVID-19 death rate in the US.

High Death Rate in May

While determining the true mortality rate of COVID-19 is a challenging prospect, researchers at the University of Washington estimated in May that the rate of death among those who displayed symptoms was 1.3 percent. (In contrast, the seasonal flu death rate is 0.1 percent.)

Researchers arrived at this figure by examining COVID-19 data from 116 counties in 33 states. One of the authors of the study, Anirban Basu, extrapolated the data available at the time and suggested that if the virus infects the same amount of people this year as the influenza virus did in 2018-19 (35.5 million) then between 350,000 and 1.2 million Americans could die of COVID-19. 

Weekly Average Death Count Down Substantially in June and July

Despite new daily confirmed cases in the US regularly exceeding 60,000 in early July, average daily deaths were down as much as 75 percent from April. The country had a record of 4,928 deaths on April 16 but was below 1,300 every day between June 27 and July 14. In fact, 391 deaths were reported on July 13, according to the European CDC. So how does one explain the drastic rise in new cases and decline in deaths?

Higher Rates in Long-Term Care

One possible reason for the decline in deaths is that state governments now know more about the virus and how to protect those who are high-risk. While New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has been lauded by some for his leadership during the pandemic, he has also been criticized for his initial strategy that involved sending recovering patients into nursing homes housing high-risk individuals. New York was an early hot spot for the virus due in part to this strategy, which, as of July 7, had resulted in 6,457 deaths at nursing homes in the state. This was second only to New Jersey.

While nursing homes account for just 10 percent of all confirmed COVID-19 cases, they account for 42 percent of all deaths in the US (as of July 7). This adds credence to a recent CDC report that suggests the majority of those who have died from the virus were people older than 65 with underlying medical conditions.

Increased Testing

Another reason for the declining death is the fact that testing is now more accessible to most Americans. Generally speaking, tests were scarce in March and April, which meant they were often only limited to patients exhibiting symptoms. Now, because tests are more readily available, positive cases of individuals with mild symptoms or those who are asymptomatic are being recorded.

The increase in testing means younger people who are less at risk of dying are being included among the confirmed cases. For instance, the median age of individuals who tested positive in Florida was 65 in March but 35 in June. While some see this "youth surge" as a positive, it's important to note they can still pass the disease along to high-risk populations. Moreover, even if there isn't a significant risk of death for young people, they can still experience serious complications: "We see people in their 20s and 30s in our ICUs gasping for air because they have COVID-19," notes Baylor College of Medicine dean of clinical affairs James McDeavitt.

Doctors Better Prepared

At the outbreak of the virus, doctors worldwide were ill-prepared to treat patients, and many were shocked at some of the symptoms brought about by what they believed was just a respiratory disease. Medical professionals now have millions of case examples to study and, despite the absence of a cure, have made some breakthrough discoveries.

The steroid dexamethasone, for instance, has been shown to help control harsh immune responses. As of July 1, hospitalizations were rising throughout the US while reported deaths in hospitals were declining. Similarly, hospitals in the United Kingdom reported declines in hospital mortality rates every month since April, while a hospital in Milan, Italy, noticed a decline from 24 percent to 2 percent from March to May.

Cause for Concern: Deaths Lag Cases

The rising number of confirmed cases still presents a very real problem for hospitals in the US, even with current trends showing a decline in deaths. This is because reported deaths often lag confirmed cases. According to the COVID Tracking Project, official reporting of death can take up to one month from the time of COVID-19 exposure.

Larry Muller
Things You Can Do to Fight Coronavirus

It’s been months, and the coronavirus global pandemic is still raging all across the world. We are all tired and discouraged, growing fatigued from weeks of social distancing restrictions and precautions.

Though we’re ready to head back to our normal lives, the pandemic is far from over; this virus, despite what some wish to believe, won’t simply go away on its own. Rather, it may be quite some time before we develop a safe and effective vaccine or come up with methods to treat COVID-19. As cases in nearly half the states in our country are experiencing disastrous surges in new infections, it’s time to do whatever we can as individuals to help fight the coronavirus—for ourselves and our communities. Here are some easy things you can do today to combat the risk of contracting COVID-19.

Wear Your Face Mask

This is probably one of the simplest and most effective things that you and your family can do today. The World Health Organization has recommended using medical-grade masks if you are high risk or over the age of 60, but a simple triple-layer cloth mask is sufficient for everyone else over age 2. Even layering silk or another cloth over your face can serve as an effective face mask. It doesn’t need to be anything too complex. This simple step will help to reduce the number of virus particles that you are exposed to when you go out, as well as the particles you spread yourself. It’s possible to be an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus, so wearing your face mask is a simple and non-invasive way to help protect yourself and your community.

While on the subject of face masks, even if you put one on, it won’t do any good unless you’re wearing it correctly. Too many people are wearing masks down on their chins or leaving their nose out. Because you breathe through both your nose and mouth, covering only your mouth will do nothing to protect yourself or others from droplets that can come through your nose. Touching your face too frequently to adjust your mask can also put you at risk. So, wear your mask correctly and avoid touching your face!

Keep Washing Your Hands

That’s right, hand washing is still one of the most effective ways to kill those pesky germs you’re picking up from your surroundings. Washing your hands with simple soap and hot water for 20 seconds is extremely effective at getting rid of germs and bacteria. Wash your hands thoroughly and often as you go about your day. Even if they don’t look dirty to you, you could be carrying around various infectious germs and spreading them throughout your environment. But if you stay on top of your handwashing, you lower the chance significantly that you will spread the coronavirus to others or pick it up yourself.

Hand sanitizer can help if you aren’t able to visit a sink with soap frequently, but make sure you choose a hand sanitizer that complies with health officials’ guidelines. Any hand sanitizer should contain at least 60 percent alcohol. Certainly, some hand sanitizer is better than nothing at all, but be aware that some are considered better than others.

Stay Informed

Even though it can seem intimidating to sort out all of the data that’s available right now, you and your family need to stay as up-to-date as possible on the prevalence of the virus in your community. Most areas continue to report new cases, so it can be relatively easy to keep abreast of the latest developments. What you want to see is a decline in new cases near you, otherwise heading out in public still carries quite a substantial risk (though you can cut that by taking necessary precautions).

Keep Your Distance and Stay Ready

It’s vitally important for you to avoid crowded situations if at all possible. You want the situations you’re in to allow for social distancing (i.e., keeping at least 6 feet between you and everyone else). Your risk of contracting the virus goes up substantially if you can’t follow the social distancing guidelines.

It’s about the time of exposure, proximity to other people, and the area you’re in—you want to stick to outdoor venues if at all possible, as the virus can be diluted more outside, and stay away from large groups of people whenever you are able. If there are a lot of people around, make sure you have a mask on and keep washing your hands!

Finally, the reality is that more people will end up contracting this virus than not. We must stay prepared for the likelihood that ourselves or someone within our household will get sick. Clean frequently touched surfaces regularly, designate a sick room in your home, and keep some essential supplies ready just in case. Coronavirus is not going anywhere anytime soon, but if we work together as a community, we can help fight back against it.

Larry Muller
Spotlight - How ‘Disease Detectives’ Can Stop the Spread of COVID-19

The fight against COVID-19 has only just begun. As different areas of the country and the world begin to reopen, it is crucial that we explore ways to keep the virus contained and maintain control over any additional outbreaks. Some areas, such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona have already begun to see their numbers increase again. One of the most useful elements in containing an outbreak during a pandemic is by contact tracing. This involves finding people who have been—possibly unknowingly—exposed to the novel coronavirus by coming into contact with someone who has tested positive. Here’s why these so-called “disease detectives” are crucial and how you can help by becoming one.

What Is A Disease Detective?

Disease detectives (or contact tracers) are usually health care professionals of some kind—although they don’t have to be—who have a strong sense of empathy and excellent communication skills. It is the job of these professionals to contact people who have come into contact with others who have tested positive for the virus. This is a crucial step in containing an outbreak. By finding the people who have been exposed and encouraging them to quarantine, deadly new outbreaks could be stopped before they begin. Contact tracing is a fundamental aspect of public health, and it has been used in the past to successfully contain other outbreaks (measles, tuberculosis, etc.). Initially, contact tracing was more challenging because there simply weren’t enough tracers to effectively find every person who has been exposed.

Containing outbreaks quickly means that there may not be a need to enter a full economic shutdown again, allowing businesses to operate normally with social distancing measures in place. As long as these outbreaks can quickly be contained by stopping potential exposure as soon as possible, a second full shutdown might never be needed.

Challenges in Contact Tracing

The inherent nature of COVID-19 poses some unique challenges for those seeking to contain any potential new outbreaks. Infected individuals can go up to 14 days without showing any symptoms at all, and now health care officials know that asymptomatic carriers are also possible. In tracking the virus, contact tracers conduct interviews with individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19. During these interviews, they will ask them about their movement in the days leading up to the onset of the illness. This includes any places where they may have been and people with whom they may have been in close contact—usually defined as closer than 6 feet—for more than 10 or 15 minutes. They will also try to obtain the names and contact information of people with whom they may have come into contact with, if possible.

This can sometimes prove to be a difficult task, as many people have privacy concerns over sharing information about where they’ve been and with whom, particularly when they are contacted by a stranger. These individuals will already have some information about their whereabouts in the past several days due to the nature of contact tracing. It can be an inherently off-putting situation for many people. However, it’s important to remember that these contact tracers will not share the names of the individuals who may have exposed you to the virus due to patient privacy laws. They will also not ask for your social security number, bank account information, or immigration status. If contact tracers call people multiple times and cannot reach them, then a letter will eventually be mailed to them.

The Aftermath

Contact tracers can provide support and connect individuals who have been exposed to the virus to health care services, social services, and any other support they may need. Contact tracers often have to communicate this information while also dealing with language and cultural barriers. Many people in the United States live paycheck to paycheck. For these individuals, having enough supplies to quarantine for 14 days may prove quite difficult. In these cases, contact tracers can help to connect them with social services.

Become A Contact Tracer

Individuals who are interested in becoming contact tracers should ideally possess compassion, good communication skills, and knowledge of the health care field. To be a contract tracer, you must be fluent in English. In addition, knowledge of a second language is beneficial. CONTRACE Public Health Corps is seeking individuals who are interested in becoming contact tracers, which could provide an ideal opportunity for retirees or anyone else with strong interpersonal skills and health care knowledge who is looking for additional work. As we begin to reopen the world, contact tracing will become an essential part of containing future outbreaks. Contacting individuals who are experiencing no symptoms but who may be carrying the virus is absolutely essential to controlling the spread.

Larry Muller
Summer Activities and COVID-19: What You Need to Know

In the wake of the global coronavirus pandemic, many of us have been sheltering in place or under quarantine for quite some time. The urge to get out and do something now that summer is well underway can feel almost overwhelming. So, now that things are starting to reopen and the world is beginning to resume normal activity, how can you stay safe while out and about? If you’re considering some summer activities, here’s what you should know about the risks so you can stay safe and healthy while still having a little bit of summer fun!

The Real Risks

The truth is that right now, the possibility of a completely risk-free outing simply does not exist. Your personal risk is extremely reliant on your health and your age, the precautions you take, and how widespread the virus happens to be in your specific geographic area. However, there are ways that you can mitigate your risk so long as you take a few important factors into account.

Mitigating Your Risk

Most infectious disease experts and healthcare professionals note that you can consider the transmission of COVID-19 in terms of four important factors: time, space, people, and place. Consider your activities according to these guidelines to help lower your risk of contracting the disease. The more time you spend around infected people, the higher your risk of infection, and the same goes for closeness in space. Additionally, your risk of infection goes up in conjunction with the number of people you interact with daily. Place is a factor in your risk because indoor spaces increase that risk, while outdoor spaces carry a much lower risk.

Most experts recommend that you choose outdoor spaces over indoor spaces, interact with as few people as possible, keep social distancing measures in place when you do, and limit the time you spend in close quarters with people. That means that quick tasks like running into the grocery store for a few things (especially while masked and socially distancing) carry relatively low risk, while sitting down inside a restaurant for a long meal can be significantly riskier.

Dining out

Heading out for dinner at a restaurant is still considered one of the riskiest activities you can engage in right now. The trouble comes with the time involved; even if the restaurant you visit is practicing social distancing inside, the issue is that most people linger over their meals when they are visiting a restaurant. That lengthy amount of time significantly increases the exposure and risk of contracting the disease for everyone inside the restaurant. Just one infected individual could potentially put the entire restaurant at risk under the right circumstances. If you must frequent your favorite restaurant, stick with takeout or ask to be seated outdoors. An outdoor environment will help to minimize your risk of contracting the virus.

Hitting the Beach or Lounging Poolside

The good news is that most experts believe that spending time at the beach or beside the pool (outdoors) carries a lower transmission risk. Your best bet here is to determine if you can safely maintain 6 feet of distance between your family and others. The water by itself does not carry a high risk of transmission since the volume of water will serve to dilute the virus.

Beaches in general are less risky than pools, simply due to the larger amount of space. This allows you to spread out and maintain a larger distance between yourself and other families on the beach.

Heading out to Go Camping

As far as summer activities go, camping is widely regarded as the safest activity you can engage in. It’s outdoors, and you are generally isolated from other people.

Your main concerns should be focused on the other campers you are heading to the campground with. Have they all been following recommended guidelines? If you’re not sure, there’s always a possibility that they could be asymptomatic carriers, putting you and your family at risk of contracting the virus. Your safest course of action is to limit your trip to close family or friends you know you can trust.

Another factor is where you choose to go camping. If you’re headed out to an isolated area with just your family and a few friends, your risk is quite low. However, if you choose to head to a crowded campground, know that you increase your risk substantially with the more people you end up interacting with. Safe camping would involve just a few people in an outdoor, isolated area.

Stay Alert and Cautious

There are certainly some summer activities you can engage in with relative safety during this pandemic. Just be sure to approach every activity with caution, stick to the outdoors when you can, and continue to follow recommended guidelines.

Larry Muller
What You Need to Know about Coronavirus and Dexamethasone

As researchers and scientists across the globe scramble to find a way to treat the novel coronavirus, new research suggests there might be some good news. A relatively inexpensive and commonly used steroid known as dexamethasone has shown promise as a potential tool against coronavirus.

Though the research is preliminary, researchers are excited about the implications and the potential to save lives that the use of dexamethasone presents. Here is everything you should know about the early stages of this research, what it might mean, and when we might know more.

The RECOVERY Trial

The world’s largest clinical trial is known as RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy), currently being conducted at the University of Oxford. The trial is currently exploring existing treatments to test their effectiveness on COVID-19 specifically.

One of those treatments is dexamethasone, a cheap and widely available low-dose steroid. It works to reduce inflammation by mimicking certain anti-inflammatory hormones normally produced by the body.

Why It Works

Dexamethasone works to dampen the body’s immune system. Though this might seem counterintuitive, it makes sense. When affected by a virus or other infection, the body’s natural response is to try to fight off the infection. This process often causes inflammation in the body.

Ironically, it is this reaction that can sometimes wind up proving fatal in the end. When the body’s immune system goes into overdrive, the process that is intended to attack the source of the infection instead starts to attack the body’s own cells. This can have devastating consequences, even leading up to the patient’s death.

So far, the evidence on dexamethasone’s efficacy in fighting coronavirus has only been seen in the most critically ill patients. About 19 out of 20 people infected with coronavirus recover on their own without hospitalization. Of the rest admitted to hospitals for treatments, most do still recover. However, the remaining patients become critically ill and often need oxygen or other types of ventilation. These are the patients that are being helped by dexamethasone.

Cytokine Storm

One of the effects of COVID-19 can manifest as an intense, over-the-top immune system response known as a “cytokine storm." This devastating phenomenon occurs when your immune system doesn’t stop at attacking the infection or virus, and instead continues on to attack other healthy parts of the body. A cytokine storm can be fatal if the inflammation cannot be stopped.

Doctors still do not completely understand the cytokine storm phenomenon, and it is only recently they are able to identify and treat them. This makes their presence alongside coronavirus infections extremely concerning. Cytokine storms have actually been linked to other pandemics in the past, including the 1918 influenza pandemic, the 2003 SARS outbreak, and even the H1N1 ‘swine’ flu.

Common treatments for cytokine storms include the use of steroids aimed at generally dampening that broad, over-reactive immune system response. The concern with using steroids when a patient is already sick is, of course, that the immune system response (albeit at lower levels) is essential to fighting off infection.

Current research on the use of dexamethasone for COVID-19 patients shows that it is only useful for those patients that are critically ill, on oxygen or ventilators—not those showing milder symptoms. The reason is thought to be that at a mild stage, the immune system response is still necessary to fight the effects of the virus off. Those with more severe reactions may be dealing with an overactive immune system response (the cytokine storm), which a steroid can help alleviate.

How Effective Is It, Really?

Though this research is still in the early stages, the preliminary results are promising. For patients not receiving any oxygen support (in the milder stages of the virus), there was no benefit at all from dexamethasone, likely for the reasons mentioned above. For other patients, however, the benefits appear significant.

The scientists that conducted these trials suggest that around one in three deaths could be prevented in patients on ventilators and around one in five prevented for those on oxygen support. Researchers have also suggested that up to 5,000 lives could have been saved had the drug been in use at the beginning of the pandemic.

Dexamethasone is widely available at relatively low costs, and since it has been around since 1957, it is out of patent. What that means is many companies are able to produce the drug, and it can be available widely all over the world.

The implications are particularly good for poorer countries suffering from numerous cases of COVID-19, due to the widespread availability and low cost of the drug. For coronavirus patients on oxygen or ventilators, only a low dose of the drug is needed, which helps mitigate the potential for any negative side effects in the broader population.

Hopefully, this drug will prove as useful as the current research suggests in saving more lives.

Larry Muller
COVID-19 and the Oil and Gas Industry: What You Need to Know

Economies all over the world are reeling from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Leaders in many industries continue to hope for a return to normal, but the reality is that we may never see a pre-pandemic normal again. The oil and gas industry in particular has been negatively impacted by the global economic shutdown resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Fossil fuels are seeing incredible losses and oil prices are hitting record lows.

An increase in supply coupled with a sudden decrease in demand essentially crippled the industry, and the recovery might be slower than you think. So, what happened, and how did the coronavirus pandemic help to create the perfect storm that nearly crippled the oil and gas industry almost overnight?

The Start of the Problem

When did the problem in the oil and gas industry begin? Most people point to the first issue coming up in March of 2020, when an expected agreement between OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia) and Russia suddenly fell through. The OPEC/G20 plan would have limited production. It was expected to keep oil prices low but sustainable, both for consumers at the gas pumps and for the major oil producers around the world.

However, in an unexpected move, Russia suddenly decided to back out of the agreement at the last minute. This caused Saudi Arabia to retaliate by immediately increasing production by millions of barrels a day. These actions suddenly increased the oil supply by a significant amount in a market that was already completely saturated with oil.

Coronavirus and Its Impact

Part two of this perfect storm occurred because of the global coronavirus pandemic. All around the world, economies in multiple countries came to a sudden and screeching halt. Businesses shut down, workers and families were confined to their homes, and virtually no travel in any form was happening. As you might expect, the direct effect of this was that demand for oil completely plummeted. Airline travel on its own dropped by nearly 90 percent in the aftermath of the economic shutdown.

And this does not even take into account how little people were driving their cars or taking public transportation. Prices at the gas pump dropped to lows that hadn’t been seen in decades (down to $1/gallon or less in some places), and drivers were stuck contemplating low prices they couldn’t take advantage of, since there had been essentially no reason— or ability—to travel.

Dropping Prices

The combination of a vastly oversaturated oil market and little to no demand for the product caused oil prices to plummet, reaching lows that hadn’t been seen in 30 years or more. This situation was a completely unprecedented scenario for the industry, and the low prices of $20 or less per barrel are significantly below levels necessary for certain American oil producers and frackers to stay in business at all, much less produce any kind of profit.

In order for these companies to stay in business, the general consensus is that oil prices must be at least $40 dollars a barrel or more. The Trump administration in America quickly scrambled to encourage all parties involved to reconsider their positions and make changes for the good of the global economy, but even massive production cuts might not work at this point.

An Uncertain Future

As the oil and gas industry slowly begins to recover, many wonder about the future of the industry beyond the coronavirus pandemic. Though the reality right now is that the world economy still uses massive amounts of oil and gas for a number of applications, that won’t last forever.

With more pressure than ever on big oil companies about the negative environmental impact of fracking and drilling on the planet, renewable sources of energy are getting increased attention. But it’s not only that environmentally-friendly methods can help save the planet. The truth is that research and development is continuing, and soon, alternative energy sources will become cheaper than oil.

Similar to the cost/performance curve seen with computers and technology, alternative energy sources will become less expensive as the technology is improved and production becomes easier. Competition in the alternative energy sector will continue to ramp up, encouraging better performance, lower prices, and even more adoption across a broader section of consumers.

Moving past the coronavirus pandemic, the oil and gas industry needs to take a hard look at the future. Renewable energy is poised to become serious competition in the next several decades. Additionally, changing policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions along with the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and other sources of power (like solar panels on homes) will continue to drive innovation in that sector. The future of oil may change significantly in coming years.

Larry Muller
What You Need to Know about Coronavirus and the Future of Business

During a global pandemic, it can be difficult to move forward with work and business like normal, and certainly our world is changing in fundamental ways. We may be looking at the start of a new normal, never again returning to how things used to be, particularly for businesses.

The changes we’ve seen are likely to have a profound impact on the future of work. How will stores, businesses, and offices make changes in the future and what could those changes look like? We may be seeing a glimpse of that shift as many areas begin reopening with new policies in place. Here’s a look at some of the changes the business world, from retail and food service to healthcare, might experience in a post-coronavirus world.

An Increase in Contactless Interfaces

As a contagious virus spread like wildfire across the globe, people became suddenly hyper aware of how many surfaces we touch each day and how many people we casually come into contact with on a regular basis. It wasn’t too far in the past that touch screens were the new best thing, but with a crisis like this, more people are becoming interested in contactless interfaces of all kinds. Touchless payment options via mobile phones have been available well before the coronavirus pandemic. However, with the concerns about contact and the virus lingering on surfaces touched by multiple people during the course of a day, it is likely that people will expect more contactless payment options and come to use them much more regularly in the future.

Contactless pickup has also become a common feature in many stores since the pandemic began, and it is likely that things like curbside or quick in-store pickup and contactless delivery will become a staple as we move on to a new future. Stores ranging from clothing retailers to grocery stores to bookshops have tried the contactless pickup option all over the nation, with a good amount of success. These options can only improve in the future as technology continues to advance alongside demand. Facial recognition, voice activation, and machines that recognize gestures are likely to show up more and more now, in order to increase the contactless options available to consumers in stores.

Online Shopping Options

Though many businesses may have felt comfortable with their online shopping options, a crisis like this pandemic forced many to reassess what they offered and stretched a number of businesses to their limit. Those that did not have online shops faced the potential failure of their business when stores across the globe were forced to close their doors for an indeterminate amount of time. Many had to scramble to provide some online options as quickly as possible in the aftermath of the shutdowns, with varying degrees of success.

It’s no question that online shopping options will likely improve for a number of different businesses in the future. Grocery stores across the world will improve their pickup and delivery options, retail stores will likely improve their online shopping infrastructures, and many other businesses will also likely add an online component to complement their in-store offerings. Now more than ever, it’s clear that a business needs to be online, at least in part, to achieve success.

The Rise of Telemedicine

Telemedicine has been around for some time now, but patients have had relatively little interest in taking advantage of its options, in part due to insurance companies refusing to reimburse providers for telehealth visits at the same rate as in-person visits.

The coronavirus pandemic was the surprising and sudden test telemedicine never knew was coming. Healthcare providers all around the world have suddenly had to increase their telemedicine capabilities, while insurance companies have increased the range of telemedicine services for which they will reimburse providers.

The elderly and other at-risk individuals were suddenly afraid to see a doctor in person because of the significant risk coronavirus posed to their health. Who wants to visit a doctor for a minor problem when you might leave with a deadly virus? As a result, doctors, dentists, and other healthcare providers were forced to change their procedures and increase the telemedicine offerings, allowing patients to consult with a doctor from the comfort of their own home via their desktop computer or smartphone.

Even the mental health sector has seen a huge increase in telemedicine. The isolation of remote work and sheltering in place has put extra strain on individuals suffering from mental health issues, and even people who didn’t have trouble before were feeling the stress and anxiety of a global pandemic. As a result, virtual therapy suddenly became the new normal.

COVID-19 marks a break from the past, and we have good reason to believe that many of the changes we’ve seen since March will endure as we recover and reopen the economy—especially considering this virus is still very much with us. With no vaccine or guaranteed effective treatment, and no certainty as to the virus’ seasonality, we may have to shelter in place again, perhaps even repeatedly, in the future. These changes discussed above and many more may soon become our new normal.

Larry Muller
The CARES Act: What You Need to Know

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, people all over the world have experienced the consequences of suddenly finding themselves out of work for an indefinite period of time. With businesses closing all over, schools switching to a virtual format, and other companies trying out work-from-home arrangements, everything has been quite unstable. In order to help stimulate the economy and put some money in the pockets of Americans who are out of work, the United States government drafted and implemented the CARES Act earlier this year. Known as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, this package totaled nearly $2 trillion and was signed into law on March 27, 2020 by President Trump. Here’s more about what this package entailed and how it worked to help the American people and the economy.

Historic Legislation

The CARES Act represents the largest economic stimulus package in history, with the total amount clocking in at over $2 trillion. The next closest contender was the 2009 Recovery Act, totaling at $831 billion. This legislation marked a truly unprecedented move by the federal government to stimulate the economy and hopefully blunt the massive impact of the recession set into motion by the coronavirus pandemic. The funds were designated for several important groups, with individuals, small businesses, large corporations, local and state governments, public health, and education as the main areas of focus.

Aid for American Employees

One of the main goals of the CARES Act was to provide relief directly to Americans across the country in the form of economic stimulus payments. For U.S. households with an average income of up to $99,000 or up to $198,000 for those filing jointly, it meant that individuals would receive a $1,200 payment per adult. For every child under the age of 17, families would receive $500, up to a maximum of $3,400 for a family of four. In the case of individuals who did not file a tax return in 2018 or 2019 (Social Security recipients), the IRS used information found on Form RRB-1099 and Form SSA-1099 to send them their Economic Impact Payment, as they would receive their benefits normally, either by paper check or direct deposit.

For most individuals, this stimulus check came to them without any action necessary on their part. Individuals who regularly file tax returns, use direct deposit, or who have the aforementioned forms on file with the IRS did not need to give them any additional information to receive their check and instead simply received it in the mail or had the amount show up in their direct deposit account used for tax returns. In some cases, individuals were required to file a simple tax return in order to receive the economic impact payment, and for others, the IRS set up an online portal so that direct deposit information could be communicated to them in order to receive the payment.

Paycheck Protection Program Aims to Help Small Businesses

Perhaps the second largest area which the CARES Act focused on was small businesses, both keeping them in business and encouraging them to keep their workers employed throughout this uncertain time. For this, the CARES Act created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Eligible businesses included any nonprofit, veterans organization, business, or tribal business with fewer than 500 employees, less than 500 employees per physical location (for food service and accommodation businesses, or under the Small Business Administration standard if they have more than 500 employees). Through PPP, eligible organizations could receive a Small Business Interruption loan totaling up to 2.5 times the amount of their average monthly payroll, with a maximum loan amount of $10 million. The funds were available to cover salaries, benefits, and payroll expenses along with interest payments, utilities, and rent payments. It is possible for the principal of this loan to be forgiven, effectively turning it into a grant if specific qualifications are met.

The PPP also authorized $10 billion in emergency grants; $17 billion toward the payment of interest, fees, and principal on existing small business loans for six months; and $1 billion allotted to education, training, consulting, and administration as it relates to these loan programs. An existing loan program, the Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL), was also increased, providing an extra $10,000 in relief to those small businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic (which does not need to be repaid). The program allows small businesses to borrow up to $200,000 in EIDL loans without a personal guarantee.

While there are a number of other benefits attached to the CARES Act, the large majority of the funding went toward helping Americans and helping small businesses to continue operating, as well as protecting their employees amid the sudden loss of their jobs. Through this legislation, the federal government is seeking to blunt the impact of the economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

Larry Muller